Tesla Gains From Added Chinese Volume, But By How Much?


  • Tesla, Inc. production in China is trending above management’s guidance on production.
  • Tesla production roadmap and services implies revenue upside to consensus models which is driving the stock price.
  • We quantify that China alone will contribute +113k units above delivery guidance of 1.9M total vehicles produced this year.
  • We value Tesla on the basis of adjusted EBITDA and net profit growth, and anticipate higher margins versus peers given efficiency and average car price trends.
  • We value Tesla stock at 25.5x FY ’25 earnings, and anticipate the stock to trade at $230 by year-end, implying +18% upside at the time of writing this report.

Tesla Shanghai Gigafactory

Xiaolu Chu

Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) initial production figures for the month of January certainly sets TSLA on the right track. The production figures suggest that TSLA is trending higher than the implied guidance from the Q4 earnings deck of


Ycharts (Ycharts)

Trade Theory Estimate on Tesla Production

Estimates on Tesla Production Run Rate (Trade Theory )

Trade Theory estimate on production ramp

Estimate on Tesla Production Volumes 2023 (Trade Theory)

Trade Theory

Tesla Production Trend versus Management Guidance (Trade Theory)

Tesla Motors Trade Theory

Tesla Financial Model (Trade Theory)

Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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