Acadia: Catalysts Stacking


  • The lead drug (Nuplazid) is enjoying aggressive sales growth and thereby trumping competitors.
  • In taking success to the next level, Acadia is expanding Nuplazid’s label for schizophrenia and Alzheimer’s psychosis.
  • There is also another advanced molecule (trofinetide) that is poised to deliver the solution to Rett syndrome.


wildpixel/iStock via Getty Images



It is my observation that those who sell such stocks to wait for a more suitable time to buy back these same shares seldom attain their objective. They usually wait for a decline to be

ACAD chart




growth opportunities


Nuplazid growth amid a down market


Nuplazid label for Alzheimer


Nuplazid for schizophrenia


trofinetide for rett syndrome


conventional neuroleptics


Nuplazid robust sales growth




Molecules and franchises

Market potential and penetration

Net earnings based on a 25% margin

PT based on 160.8M shares outstanding and 10 P/E

“PT of the part” after appropriate discount

Nuplazid for Parkinson’s psychosis

$1B (Estimated from the $11.5B global Parkinson disease market)

$375M $23.32 $20.99 (10% discount because Nuplazid is succeeding in launch)
Nuplazid for Alzheimer’s disease psychosis $1B (based on the $25B global Alzheimer disease market) $250M $15.54 $10.87 (30% discount because the drug has yet to gain approval)
Nuplazid for schizophrenia (negative symptoms) $500M (based on the $7.9B schizophrenia market) $125M $7.77 $4.66 (40% discount because the drug has yet been approved and clearance to treat negative symptoms is a high hurdle)
Trofinetide for Rett’s syndrome $500M (small market size but orphan status enabling a premium reimbursement) $125M $7.77 $4.66 (40% discount because the drug has yet been approved)
Younger pipeline assets Will wait for more advancement before valuing N/A N/A N/A

The Sum of The Parts


Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Additional disclosure: As a medical doctor/market expert, I’m not a registered investment advisor. Despite that I strive to provide the most accurate information, I neither guarantee the accuracy nor timeliness. Past performance does NOT guarantee future results. I reserve the right to make any investment decision for myself and my affiliates pertaining to any security without notification except where it is required by law. I’m also NOT responsible for the action of my affiliates. The thesis that I presented may change anytime due to the changing nature of information itself. Investing in stocks and options can result in a loss of capital. The information presented should NOT be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any form of security. My articles are best utilized as educational and informational materials to assist investors in your own due diligence process. That said, you are expected to perform your own due diligence and take responsibility for your action. You should also consult with your own financial advisor for specific guidance, as financial circumstances are individualized. That aside, I’m not giving you professional medical advice. Before embarking on any health-changing behavior, make sure you consult with your own doctor.

Thanks for reading! To read the full article, CLICK HERE. To get the latest articles, please hit the orange “Follow” button on top.

Be sure to check out our private investment research community, Integrated BioSci Investing.

Dr. Tran’s analyses are the best in the biotech sphere, well worth the price of subscription.

Very professional, extremely knowledgeable and very honest … I would highly recommend this service and his stock picks have been very profitable.

Simply put, this is worth every penny. Just earlier today, one of the companies recommended by Dr. Tran got acquired for a nice 50% premium.

Click here for a FREE TRIAL.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *