Acadia: Powerful Unfolding Catalysts


  • Aside from being launched for Parkinson’s, Nuplazid is potentially gaining two additional label expansions.
  • Trofinetide is also poised to gain FDA approval to treat the rare condition, Rett syndrome as early as 1Q 2023.
  • Next year, Acadia is set to report the ADVANCE trial data for schizophrenia.

3d illustration of brain white matter of cerebral hemisphere anatomy.


Acadia logo


If you aren’t willing to own a stock for 10 years don’t even think about owning it for 10 minutes. – Warren Buffett

In biotech investing, a regulatory binary event is crucial to your investment thesis. As such, it’s important that

ACAD Stock chart


Acadia pipeline


Acadia: Nuplazid label for Alzheimer


Acadia: - trofinetide for rett syndrome


Acadia: conventional neuroleptics


Acadia financials


Molecules and franchises

Market potential and penetration

Net earnings based on a 25% margin

PT based on 160.8M shares outstanding and 10 P/E

“PT of the part” after appropriate discount

Nuplazid for Parkinson’s psychosis

$1B (Estimated from the $11.5B global Parkinson’s disease market)

$375M $23.32 $20.99 (10% discount because Nuplazid is succeeding in launch)
Nuplazid for Alzheimer’s disease psychosis $1B (based on the $25B global Alzheimer’s disease market) $250M $15.54 $10.87 (30% discount because the drug has yet to gain approval)
Nuplazid for schizophrenia (negative symptoms) $500M (based on the $7.9B schizophrenia market) $125M $7.77 $4.66 (40% discount because the drug has yet been approved and clearance to treat negative symptoms is a high hurdle)
Trofinetide for Rett syndrome $500M (small market size but orphan status enabling a premium reimbursement) $125M $7.77 $4.66 (40% discount because the drug has yet been approved)
Younger pipeline assets Will wait for more advancement before valuing N/A N/A N/A

The Sum of The Parts


Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Additional disclosure: As a medical doctor/market expert, I’m not a registered investment advisor. Despite that I strive to provide the most accurate information, I neither guarantee the accuracy nor timeliness. Past performance does NOT guarantee future results. I reserve the right to make any investment decision for myself and my affiliates pertaining to any security without notification except where it is required by law. I’m also NOT responsible for the action of my affiliates. The thesis that I presented may change anytime due to the changing nature of information itself. Investing in stocks and options can result in a loss of capital. The information presented should NOT be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any form of security. My articles are best utilized as educational and informational materials to assist investors in your own due diligence process. That said, you are expected to perform your own due diligence and take responsibility for your action. You should also consult with your own financial advisor for specific guidance, as financial circumstances are individualized. That aside, I’m not giving you professional medical advice. Before embarking on any health-changing behavior, make sure you consult with your own doctor.

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