Apple Is A Strong Sell On High Valuation & Business Cycle Change


  • Most analysts see Apple as a hold or buy, I prefer to be a contrarian.
  • Apple is priced for perfection but given its history, it is very unlikely it will keep growing linearly.
  • A high valuation, high recent growth and profitability, make the stock very risky for a limited reward.

Apple Store

Nikada/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images

I recently looked at Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) and was surprised that most articles rated the stock as a hold or buy, with only 4 sell ratings out of 44, of which just one as a strong sell.

Analysts are bullish on Apple stock

Apple stock SA authors rating breakdown (Seeking Alpha)

Apple stock EPS estimates

Apple stock EPS estimates (Seeking Alpha)

Apple stock 10 year revenue growth

Apple 10 year revenue (annotations by author) (Seeking Alpha)

Consumer spending should decline and hit Apple stock

Consumer savings accumulated (JP Morgan Asset Management)

Iphone users Apple

iPhone users worldwide (Demandsage)

AAPL stock price historical chart

Apple stock price 10 year chart (annotations by author) (Seeking Alpha)

Apple stock valuation

Apple stock exuberant valuation (Author)

Apple stock valuation

Apple stock conservative valuation (Author)

Apple stock valuation decline

Apple stock valuation (Author)

Apple stock intrinsic value

Apple stock worst case valuation (Author)

Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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