Apple: Tough Holiday Quarter Likely Portends A Tough Year


  • Apple had its biggest earnings miss in nearly seven years last quarter. It narrowly beat in the increasingly imperiled services segment.
  • The market reaction since the earnings report does not reflect the elevated risk that is present in the world’s largest company.
  • Building anti-trust momentum against Apple coupled with the prospect of perishable holiday demand makes me think the risk is to the downside.
  • The fundamental issues facing China’s necessary and hurried exit from China have not changed. Apple’s India operations are facing challenges.
  • Apple’s Services business showed some strength but it is facing problems of its own that were fortuitously masked by the narrow beat.

Apple"s New iPhone 14 Goes On Sale In China

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Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) reported its fiscal Q1 earnings on February 2nd. The report was its most significant earnings miss in about seven years. Yet, the report came a day after Jay Powell declined to rhetorically


Sofi, Refinitiv

Rate Probabilities at end of 2023

CME Group


App Economy Insights

Apple International Revenue

Business of Apps

Suppliers of Apple

Counterpoint Global Manufacturing Research

Global Smart Hardware Manufacturing Diversification Going Steady

Counterpoint Research

Q4 numbers for subscribers

Company Reports

Rev per subscription

Company Reports

Percentage Growth

Company Reports and Author’s Calculations

Services Penetration

Consumer Intelligence Research Partners

iOS vs. Android

StatCounter, Business of Apps

Flat growth, Sensor Tower, Business of Apps

Tech relationship to state

Ian Bremmer Bulletin

Apple versus SP 500

TD Ameritrade

Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial short position in the shares of AAPL either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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