Intel Plots Improbable Path To Zettascale


  • For the first time after revealing the zettascale 2027 target in 2021 (implying 1000x in just six years), Intel has detailed the innovations that are required.
  • As Moore’s Law will only yield around a 10x improvement, Intel envisions quite exotic new tech such as ultra-low voltage and temperature CMOS, and silicon photonics.
  • Even if all of these innovations would be realized timely, the main issue is likely that while performance per watt may be improved sufficiently, performance per dollar may not.
  • For example, the reason ultra-low voltage computing is uncommon is because GPU manufacturers push the voltage to improve performance per mm2 of silicon.
  • While Intel has presented an exciting engineering challenge, there is currently no investment thesis.

Entrance of The Intel Museum in Silicon Valley.

JHVEPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty Images

Investment Thesis

A bit over a year ago, Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) came out of nowhere with stating its goal to reach zettascale supercomputing in 2027, just six years after the world reached exascale in 2021:

Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of INTC either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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