Netflix Shares Are 30% Overvalued


  • Netflix, Inc. share price recovered losses after a Q2 2022 tumble as the company posted better-than-expected net adds in Q4 2022 and climbed back to $360.
  • Netflix management targets double-digit revenues growth and attractive operating margin above 20%, while generating free cash flow for investors going forward.
  • Even with these optimistic assumptions, the Netflix, Inc. estimated fair share value lies at $245 according to our discounted cash flow model. Every 50bps interest rate hike wipes out $25 in Netflix value per share.

Wednesday - Netflix

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In our previous article “Netflix: The Case For $600 Share Price,” we laid down the assumptions of what would justify $600 as a fair share value for Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX). The

Netflix subscribers

Netflix subscribers (Statista)

Data by YCharts

Netflix Subs by region

Netflix, Author

Disney+ Subs

The Walt Disney Company

Revenue, EBIT growth

Netflix, Author

DCF Model


Fair value per share


Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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