Acadia Pharmaceuticals: Breaking Down FY22 Earnings And Trofinetide Approval Shot


  • I was bullish on Acadia back in November and its share price has climbed >30% since then.
  • Revenues from Nuplazid – its only commercial drug indicated for Parkinson’s Disease Psychosis – were >$500m, but the company remains a heavy loss-maker.
  • On March 13, the company will learn if the FDA has approved its drug candidate Trofinetide in Rett Syndrome.
  • Management seems confident in Trofinetide based on positive Phase 3 study results showing statistically significant improvement on caregiver and physician assessment scales.
  • The improvements seem somewhat marginal and an open label extension trial resulted in 46% patient discontinuation. I’m not sure that supports a Buy recommendation any longer.

Innovations in medicine Abstract Molecular Structure


Investment Thesis

The last time I covered Acadia Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:ACAD) for Seeking Alpha was back in November last year after the company had released its Q322 earnings, guiding for FY22 revenues of $510 – $520m from its only


Acadia 2023 guidance (earnings presentation)


Open Label LILAC study results (Earnings Presentation)

Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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