Comcast Is Facing Short-Term Challenges, But Fundamentals Remain Solid


  • We believe that Comcast’s tepid broadband net adds put pressure on the stock. Fixed wireless, with its aggressive pricing, took the net adds share. Fiber overbuilders also intensify the competition.
  • Comcast’s spectrum split and DOCSIS 4.0 upgrades can help the company compete with FWA and fiber overbuilders in network performance and marketing claims.
  • Further, affordable mobile plans, which we see as a unique value proposition for internet, should remain a growth engine. Millions of Xfinity internet users have not yet subscribed to mobile.
  • After a 35% rally, the stock has an upside but does not provide a comfortable margin of safety. Still, Comcast consistently generates massive cash flows with relatively stable debt level.
  • Risks remain if customers still see cheap internet prices as a top priority, and MNOs start being more aggressive in their mobile plans, which can slow down Comcast’s efforts to acquire new mobile subscribers.

Comcast Xfinity Service Van


Investment Thesis

Although we see short-term challenges, we believe Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSA) can better compete with fiber and FWA with its network upgrades. Further, mobile has ample room for growth, as millions of Xfinity internet users have not yet subscribed to

Data by YCharts

Cable's broadband net adds

Cable’s broadband net adds (Companies)

FWA's net adds

FWA’s net adds (Companies)

Cable's mobile net adds (thousand)

Cable’s mobile net adds (thousand) (Companies)

Data by YCharts
Data by YCharts

Data by YCharts
Cash flow margins (%)

Cash flow margins (%) (Company)

Comcast's debt maturities as of 4Q21 ($ million)

Comcast’s debt maturities as of 4Q21 ($ million) (Company)

Our 10-year reverse DCF model

Our 10-year reverse DCF model (Vektor Research)

Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of VZ either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Additional disclosure: Research reports are written based on analyst(s) analysis and expectations, and the analyst(s) must include sources for external data included in the analysis. The research analyst is not responsible for any inaccuracy caused by human errors. Still, Vektor Research will make sure, with reasonable efforts, to reduce such mistakes as minimal as possible. Please note that the forecasts do not guarantee any future performance. Vektor Research, along with the analyst(s), is not responsible for any loss, expenses, and the reader’s decision-making, as we do not force readers to act towards any securities.

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